The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Thursday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan that would pave the way for the disbursement of $1.17 billion and also increased the total loan size to $7 billion, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board.
“The IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) with the Pakistan authorities for the conclusion of the combined seventh and eighth reviews of the EFF-supported program. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board. Subject to Board approval, about $1,177 million (SDR 894 million) will become available, bringing total disbursements under the program to about $4.2 billion,” it said in a statement.
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The statement added, “Additionally, in order to support program implementation and meet the higher financing needs in FY23, as well as catalyze additional financing, the IMF Board will consider an extension of the EFF until end-June 2023 and an augmentation of access by SDR 720 million that will bring the total access under the EFF to about $7 billion.”
Nathan Porter, who headed the IMF team, said in a statement “Pakistan is at a challenging economic juncture. A difficult external environment combined with procyclical domestic policies fueled domestic demand to unsustainable levels.”
The resultant economic overheating led to large fiscal and external deficits in FY22, contributed to rising inflation, and eroded reserve buffers, he added.
Steadfast Implementation of FY2023 Budget
The statement added that to stabilize the economy and bring policy actions in line with the IMF-supported program, while protecting the vulnerable, policy priorities include the steadfast implementation of the FY23 budget, which aims to reduce the government’s large borrowing needs by targeting an underlying primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP, underpinned by current spending restraint and broad revenue mobilization efforts focused particularly on higher-income taxpayers.
Catch-Up in Power Sector Reforms
The global lender said that on the back of weak implementation of the previously agreed plan, the power sector circular debt (CD) flow is expected to grow significantly to about Rs. 850 billion in FY22, overshooting program targets, threatening the power sector’s viability, and leading to frequent power outages. The authorities are committed to resuming reforms including, critically, the timely adjustment of power tariff including for the delayed annual rebasing and quarterly adjustments, to improve the situation in the power sector and limit load shedding, it added.
Proactive Monetary Policy to Guide Inflation
The IMF said that headline inflation in Pakistan exceeded 20 percent in June, hurting particularly the most vulnerable. In this regard, the recent monetary policy increase was necessary and appropriate, and monetary policy will need to be geared towards ensuring that inflation is brought steadily down to the medium-term objective of 5–7 percent.
“Importantly, to enhance monetary policy transmission, the rates of the two major refinancing schemes EFS and LTFF (which have over recent months been raised by 700 bps and 500 bps respectively) will continue to be linked to the policy rate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help cushion activity and rebuild reserves to more prudent levels,” it added.
Reducing Poverty and Strengthen Social Safety
The IMF said that during FY22, the unconditional cash transfer (UCT) Kafalat scheme reached nearly 8 million households, with a permanent increase in the stipend to Rs. 14,000 per family, while a one-off cash transfer of Rs. 2,000 (Sasta Fuel Sasta Diesel, SFSD) was granted to about 8.6 million families to alleviate the impact of rampant inflation.
For FY23, the authorities have allocated Rs. 364 billion to BISP (up from Rs. 250 in FY22) to be able to bring 9 million families into the BISP safety net, and further extend the SFSD scheme to additional non-BISP, lower-middle class beneficiaries.
Strengthen Governance
To improve governance and mitigate corruption, the authorities are establishing a robust electronic asset declaration system and plan to undertake a comprehensive review of the anti-corruption institutions (including the National Accountability Bureau) to enhance their effectiveness in investigating and prosecuting corruption cases, the statement added.
It said that steadfast implementation of the outlined policies, underpinning the SLA for the combined seventh and eighth reviews, will help create the conditions for sustainable and more inclusive growth.
“The authorities should nonetheless stand ready to take any additional measures necessary to meet program objectives, given the elevated uncertainty in the global economy and financial markets,” the statement concluded.
